Previews - Cowboys v Sea Eagles (Round 2)

[Granty]

Rugby League Week
With David Middleton

Dairy Farmers Stadium - Saturday; March 18, 8.30pm

HISTORY: Played 9, Manly 6, North Queensland 3.

THIS GROUND: Played 4, Manly 3, North Queensland 1.

ROUND ONE: Cowboys - 36-4 v Broncos at Suncorp Stadium.
Sea Eagles - 14-27 v Raiders at Brookvale Oval.

ON last weekend's form, the Cowboys deserve to be the shortest-priced favourites of round two. They were scintillating against the Broncos last Sunday, while Manly were a huge disappointment in. going down to Canberra.

But punters beware! The first six weeks of a new, season are notorious for throwing up bizarre results and while there is every reason to believe that the Cowboys are the specials of the week, there is no such thing as a certainty at this time of year. Manly caused a huge boilover the last time these teams met in Townsville (2004) and they have enough quality players to turn things around following their effort against the Raiders.

But if last Sunday's form holds true, the Cowboys will take plenty of stopping. They have speed, size and strength in all the right places and will wreak plenty of damage on the Sea Eagles if they attack centre-field as they did against the Broncos.

The Cowboys had their best ever season at home last year and will be favoured to win convincingly. A North Queensland win by 13+ in the Margins will be short in the betting, but looks to be a good bet: North Queensland speedsters Matt Bowen, Ty Williams and Matt Sing will be vying for First Tryscorer, along with Manly’s Steve Bell.

THE NUMBERS GAME

* The Cowboys have won three of their past four matches against Manly.
* North Queensland won nine from 12 at Dairy Farmers last season.
* Manly won only three games from 10 at night in 2005,
* The Sea Eagles had four wins and eight losses away from home last season.

TV: Fox One 9:30pm LIVE (AEDT)

[Granty]

Big League

COWBOYS v SEA EAGLES

Dairy Farmers Stadium
Saturday 18 March, 9.30pm (AEDST)

Relentless Cowboys test rivals’ fitness

On form alone, Manly face a terribly difficult task against the red-hot Cowboys at Dairy Farmers Stadium this Saturday night – but form is only half the story.

As the stats show, there’s no side more difficult to contain than North Queensland. The question Manly fans should be asking ahead of this week’s big clash is can they keep up with the relentless energy of Graham Murray’s men? Fitness is the key.

No side in the NRL places such unyielding pressure on a defensive line as the Cowboys. By pure weight of possession and the power of their pack, they keep buzzing you like inflated mosquitos until they spot a weakness – then the fun begins.

The key to beating North Queensland isn’t so much containing their dynamic little men in Matt Bowen, Johnathan Thurston and Aaron Payne, but halting the momentum of their big forwards.

The Cowboys play a simple, but extremely effective game of bash and barge up the middle, or use the likes of Luke O’Donnell on the edges, waiting for defences to tire.

Once this happens, their three playmaking speedsters scythe through the middle at lightning pace to pile further misery on their already ailing oppositions.

Brisbane, who have been criticised in recent times for a lack of speed in the middle of the park, were basically lambs to the slaughter at Suncorp last Sunday – tailor-made to be torn apart by North Queensland’s fast-paced game plan.

A breakdown of the Cowboys’ stats last season confirms this. The 2005 grand finalists ran the ball more than any other side last year – a total of 4,736 times – forcing their opponents to make a massive 4,065 tackles (145 per game). Players from no other side were tackled as often as the Cowboys last season.

But unlike their opponents this week, North Queensland rarely runs from dummy-half – averaging only 21 per game to rank 11th in the NRL.

Instead, the majority of their runs come from hit-ups or players out slightly wider challenging the defensive line.

Taking the finals out of the equation, the Cowboys ranked fourth in the NRL for total hit-ups last season (1,858 at 77 per game). Last week against the Broncos they continued the trend, running 79 times in general play (1st in NRL) and hitting the ball up 74 times (4th) to rank third overall for total runs.

It’s why they are so dangerous up the centre of the park; once Bowen, Thurston and Payne take over the Cowboys are unstoppable.

The end result is simple – North Queensland scored 41 of their 127 tries last season straight up the middle of the park (only Parramatta scored more).

It must be an area of concern for the Sea Eagles because they leaked a massive 45 tries up the middle last season – right alongside the Bulldogs as boasting the worst central defence in the Telstra Premiership. Again, this was exposed by the Raiders last Saturday night when they scored two of their four tries through the middle.

The other concern for Manly is their goal-line defence, which the “Cows” are masters at exploiting.

Last week the Sea Eagles conceded two tries against Canberra on their right edge by sliding on their line rather than coming up and in to nullify the play.

It continued a worrying trend last season that saw them concede 58 tries within 10 metres of their own line – more than any other side.

A simple question of strength, the Cowboys are certain to target this area through O’Donnell – who loves running close to the line – and powerful centre Paul Bowman.

Along with Parramatta, the Sea Eagles were one of only two sides to score a greater percentage of their tries up the middle last season than North Queensland, but their preferred tactic is continuous dummy-half running.

They averaged 30 dummy-half runs per game last season but just 67 hit-ups (less than any other side) – highlighting the differences between the sides this Saturday night.

The Cowboys must focus on their marker defence because Manly can be lethal.

However, in the tropical Queensland heat and against a side that never stops coming, it’s whether the Sea Eagles have the energy to keep up with their opponents that will determine the outcome of this game.

History: The Cowboys have won three of the past four meetings – but were beaten 24-20 when they last met at Dairy Farmers Stadium. Manly have won only two of their past 12 premiership games.

Best Bet?: On round one
performances, it’s North Queensland at 13+ points.

[Granty]

Sportal.com.au

http://www.sportal.com.au/league.asp?i=preview&id=2122

Cowboys v Sea Eagles

VENUE & TIME: Dairy Farmers Stadium, Saturday night - 21:30 AEDT
HEAD TO HEAD: Played 9 - Sea Eagles 6, Cowboys 3
COVERAGE: Fox Sports, ABC Radio
LAST TIME: Cowboys 26 - Sea Eagles 24 at Brookvale Oval, round 21, 2005

WALKING WOUNDED

The Cowboys have no injury problems at present, while centre Ashley Alberts (knee - round six) is the only Sea Eagles player unavailable.

FORM

The Cowboys were the most impressive team in round one, racing to a 24-0 lead at half-time against Brisbane then easing off slightly in the second 40. Their forward pack dominated up the middle, allowing the little men to put on a show for the crowd of over 46,000. Last year' grand finalists made 10 line-breaks to Brisbane's two.

The Sea Eagles were disappointing in a game they were heavily favoured to win at Brookvale Oval last Saturday night. Their forwards were completely dominated by the unheralded Canberra pack and Matt Orford looked rusty with the ball in hand. Manly has now lost five of its last six matches at Brookie.

WHO'S HOT

The star of round one was undoubtedly Cowboys pivot Johnathan Thurston who finished with a personal tally of 24 points (three tries, six goals) against the hapless Broncos. He completely outplayed opposite Darren Lockyer and is seen as a real chance of stealing the Queensland captain's number six Maroon jersey.

Sea Eagles centre Steve Bell stood out like a beacon for his new club against Canberra, scoring two classy solo tries and making several incisive runs.

WHO'S NOT

Halfback Matt Orford didn't have the NRL debut for Manly he was looking for last Saturday night. With the exception of a well-placed kick that led to a try, the former Storm number seven struggled to fit in with Manly's way of doing things. If he wants to run the show he needs to quickly work something out with the man who directed proceedings last year, Michael Monaghan.

KEY MATCH-UPS

Aaron Payne v Shayne Dunley
Matt Bowen v Brett Stewart
Travis Norton v Ben Kennedy

LIKE TO SEE

The Sea Eagles go into this encounter with a better plan than simply throwing it to Orford and hoping for the best. Last week they were beaten by a team who had thoroughly done their homework and came up with some solid set plays, targeting particular individuals.

WOULDN'T LIKE TO SEE

Manly second-rower Anthony Watmough repeat his shocker from last week. Looked as keen as any player on the field, but his ball handling skills let him down badly. Watmough was driving force behind the club's brilliant start to the 2005 season and they desperately need him to repeat that in 2006.

WE THINK

The Cowboys will be too strong at home for Manly because they simply have too many attacking options. The rival forward packs should cancel each other out, but the Payne, Thurston and Bowen factor around the rucks will be too hot for the tentative Eagles to handle. Cowboys by 16.

[ryan]

Thanks for those granty we sure look in bad shape according to stats and form. I just hope we can at least make it entertaining.

[Ianc]

History tells me that when the "experts" blow wind up our arse we get a stomach ache and play like s$%t. Let's hope this trend stops this weekend.

[Granty]

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=91836

TIPPING | By Wally Lewis

With 25 rounds still to play until the finals begin, saying it's still unclear what the make up of the final eight will be, is the understatement of the year.

The grand finalists of 2005 were determined to prove their long odds were an insult, and both provided star performances in game one of the season. However, a repeat performance may be a little tough.

Every opponent for the pair from now on will ensure they have a game plan that includes a perfect defensive preparation, because both the Tigers and the Cowboys boast some of the most spectacular second phase play seen in the history of the game.

The skill level of the early season play last weekend saw plenty of moments that bought crowds to their feet. And the lineup of some round two games is certain to do it again this weekend, with five of the seven games likely to go down to the wire.

Cowboys vs Sea eagles, at Dairy Farmers Stadium.
(8.30pm. AEDT)

Chalk and cheese. Last week's competition highlight against the disappointment of the week. However it may be just the tonic needed for the upset of this round. Surely Graham Murray's men are full of confidence and capable of handling any early disasters, but the Sea Eagles have shown in a couple of previous visits that they start well in Townsville and use their aggression to full advantage.

It won't be any different this week, with the giant Manly pack targeting the smaller Cowboys defenders continuously, with Ben Kennedy leading the way. The former Test lock is likely to pick on Johnathon Thurston's left shoulder from the kick-off, and hammer away at it. If he wasn't carrying a shoulder injury into the match, he'll be taking one into the halftime break.

But while size will play an important part in Manly's game plan, it could also prove to be their undoing. As the Cowboys proved against Brisbane last week, they've based much of their attack around the next ruck following a swift play the ball. It led to three tries last weekend, and that virtually broke the back of Bennett's boys, with Aaron Payne sprinting skillfully into small holes to be backed by the lethal support of either Matthew Bowen or Johnathon Thurston.

If Manly struggle with speed off the ground, they'll suffer the same consequences. The Sea Eagles greatest hopes lie with the team's ability to adjust to Matt Orford's style of play. If they can read his attack and support his darts on the edge of the ruck, then the scoreboard will be kept moving all night.

In Townsville, public support will play an important role.

Tip: Cowboys.


Winners:

Bulldogs
Eels
Broncos
Cowboys
Storm
Knights
Panthers